Estimado de prevalencia de lepra

Reinaldo E. Gil Suárez; Clovis Lombardi

doi:10.47878/hi.1997.v22.36453

Authors

Reinaldo E. Gil Suárez Consultor a corto plaza OPS-Brasil
Clovis Lombardi Asesor Regional de Lepra OPS/OMS

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47878/hi.1997.v22.36453

Keywords:

Leprosy, prevalence

Abstract

According to data of WHO, it is considered that a hidden prevalence exists in a number of 250.000 cases, approximately , distributed in the major endemic countries. This situation is product of the characteristics of the illness and operational factors that hinder the early diagnosis. On the other hand, the Programs of Control need to have estimated data about this hidden prevalence in order to plan their actions and to evaluate their results, for what was elaborated a simple method that allows to carry out this estimate. Although it is recognized that the confidence of the method depends on the quality of the data used in the procedure. A all estimated, it only allows to come closer to reality, without being exactly this reality. The method is based on the fact, generally accepted, that the patients early diagnosed must present less disabilities, for what was considered that the percent of new cases diagnosed with some disability represents an indicator for the average of the incubation period. This estimate should envolve the five years previous to the year in with we seek to estimate the hidden prevalence. The real estimated prevalence would be the results of the estimated of hidden prevalencia plus the well-known prevalence. To evaluate the results of the search actions of this serious hidden prevalence it is expected that the new cases detected in this particular year were similar to the sumof the estimated of hidden prevalence added of the average of the new detected cases of routine in the last five years.0

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